Materi 12 · Advanced Techniques

Marketing Analytics & ROI

Marketing yang tidak diukur = marketing yang dibuang. Pelajari attribution model, ROAS optimization, channel mix, MMM (Marketing Mix Modeling), dan cara hitung true ROI campaign.

⏱ 28 Menit🎯 Intermediate📣 Marketing

1. KENAPA Marketing Analytics?

"Half the Money I Spend on Advertising is Wasted"

Quote John Wanamaker (1838-1922): "...the trouble is I don't know which half." Sekarang tahun 2026, dengan analytics kita bisa tahu mana 50% yang waste. BA marketing wajib bisa identify ini.

2. KEY METRICS

CAC — Customer Acquisition Cost CAC = Total Marketing Spend / New Customers Acquired

ROAS — Return on Ad Spend ROAS = Revenue from Ad / Ad Spend
// 4× ROAS = Rp 1 spent menghasilkan Rp 4 revenue

MER — Marketing Efficiency Ratio MER = Total Revenue / Total Marketing Spend
// Holistic, kapture brand effect & word-of-mouth

CPA — Cost per Acquisition CPA = Ad Spend / Conversions

CPM — Cost per Mille (1000 impressions) CPM = (Ad Spend / Impressions) × 1000

CTR — Click Through Rate CTR = (Clicks / Impressions) × 100%

3. ATTRIBUTION MODELS

User journey punya banyak touchpoint. Mana yang dapat "credit" untuk konversi?

Model	Cara Kerja	Bias
First-Touch	100% credit ke touchpoint pertama	Bias ke awareness channel
Last-Touch	100% credit ke touchpoint terakhir	Bias ke retargeting
Linear	Credit equal di semua touchpoint	Tidak realistis
Time Decay	Credit lebih besar untuk yang dekat konversi	Underestimate awareness
U-Shape (Position)	40% pertama, 40% terakhir, 20% middle	Underestimate consideration
Data-Driven	ML model assign credit dari data	Black box, butuh data besar

Tidak Ada Model Sempurna

Setiap attribution model punya bias. Solusi: view multiple models. Bandingkan first-touch, last-touch, dan data-driven. Kalau hasilnya konsisten, confidence tinggi. Beda jauh = perlu deeper investigation.

4. CHANNEL MIX & FUNNEL

TOFU (Top of Funnel): awareness. Channel: display ads, content, video. Metric: reach, impression.
MOFU (Middle): consideration. Channel: search ads, retargeting, email. Metric: CTR, engagement.
BOFU (Bottom): conversion. Channel: brand search, abandoned cart, last-click. Metric: ROAS, CPA.
Don't optimize ROAS at TOFU. Awareness butuh waktu. Track view-through conversion.
Balance channel mix: 40% TOFU, 40% MOFU, 20% BOFU adalah rule of thumb.

5. MARKETING MIX MODELING (MMM)

Top-Down Approach

MMM = regression model yang correlate marketing spend per channel dengan sales. Output: contribution & ROI per channel. Cocok untuk strategic planning yearly.

Pro: handle offline channel (TV, OOH), tidak perlu user-level data.
Con: butuh data 2+ tahun, butuh data scientist.

Tools open source: Robyn (Meta), LightweightMMM (Google). Free dan production-grade.

6. INCREMENTALITY TEST

Korelasi ≠ Kausalitas (lagi)

ROAS Google Ads "5×" tidak berarti channel itu drive 5× revenue. Mungkin user sudah akan beli tanpa iklan (organic search, brand loyalty). Solusi: incrementality test.

Geo holdout: matikan ads di region X, bandingkan vs region Y.
Ghost ads: tunjukkan placebo ad ke control, real ad ke test.
PSA test: kelompok control lihat Public Service Ad, test lihat brand ad.
Sintetic control: bangun "twin region" untuk yang dimatikan.

7. BUDGET ALLOCATION

Rule of Thumb Marginal ROAS = ΔRevenue / ΔSpend
// Tambah budget di channel dengan marginal ROAS tertinggi

Channel punya diminishing returns. Spending Rp 10jt di Google Ads ROAS 5×, Rp 100jt mungkin ROAS 3×. Selalu reallocate budget berdasarkan marginal return.

8. STUDI KASUS

Tokopedia & Geo Holdout Test

Tokopedia tes incrementality dengan matikan iklan TikTok di Bandung selama 4 minggu. Bandingkan revenue Bandung vs Surabaya (control). Hasilnya: true incremental revenue 60% dari yang ROAS klaim. Realokasi budget berdasarkan finding ini = save Rp 12M/bulan.

📝 Tugas Praktik

Pakai data marketing dummy. Hitung CAC, ROAS, CPA, CTR per channel.
Bangun attribution model perbandingan: first-touch vs last-touch vs linear.
Identifikasi channel yang under/over-credited di setiap model.
Hitung marginal ROAS untuk justify additional budget.
Rancang incrementality test untuk 1 channel.
Tulis 1-page budget allocation recommendation ke management.

Rangkuman

CAC, ROAS, MER, CPA, CTR = vocab wajib BA marketing.
Attribution model bias — pakai multiple model untuk validate.
Funnel: TOFU (awareness), MOFU (consideration), BOFU (conversion).
MMM = top-down approach untuk strategic planning yearly.
Incrementality test = beda observed ROAS vs true causal lift.
Diminishing returns: alokasikan budget berdasarkan marginal ROAS.
Tools: Robyn, LightweightMMM. Free & production-grade.